Guzzo the Contrarian

My contrarian investment strategies have paid off, so I’d thought I’d celebrate being “back in black” again. After today’s market gains, and including the savings I’ve continued to invest during this recession, my entire portfolio is far ahead of where it was before the market crashed.

Let’s review what I discussed and documented in Guzzo The Contrarian over the past three years to see how that happened.

1. In 2006 during a period of excessive irrational exuberance, I warned continuously, while in the face of recurrent dismissal and personal criticism, that excessive debt and an inverted yield curve will lead to a near term recession. I put my money where my mouth was and moved my entire portfolio (except for a few select stocks) into cash.
2. After that recession materialized in 2007 and during a period of excessive fear, doom and gloom, and again in the face of recurrent dismissal and personal criticism, in 2008 I moved my entire portfolio (a little too soon) back in the markets and changed my focus from a bearish outlook to a more bullish stance.
3. Earlier this year, while most everyone was suggesting moving into “safer” investments and repeatedly calling this bull market a “sucker’s rally”, I suggested differently and continuously bought more stocks and bonds, celebrated a widening yield curve, and forecast a continuing market comeback.

So far, all of my forecasts have proven correct.

During this whole three year period I’ve also continuously discussed the importance of becoming financially educated, living below one’s means, staying out of unnecessary debt, having a 6-12 month emergency fund in place, saving, and investing. All of which are proven and time-tested financial principles that would have served to benefit anyone affected by this extended period of investment losses and high unemployment rates.

Also during this period, and while continuously professing that I’m only an amateur individual investor, I’ve probably out-forecast and outperformed over 90% of the experts who are charging high fees for their investment products and services or espousing their superior financial advice.

So, what can you take away from my experiences?

Why trust your life savings with others? As I’ve been trying to encourage you all of these years, take charge of your own finances and investments. With a little motivation and a lot of persistence you can manage your investments better than those charging high fees to manage them for you.

If I can do it, so can you. As Nike Mikey says, “just do it”!

Disclosure: That’s not really me singing or playing the guitar.