Comments on: Recession: It’s Official

By: Mike

Mike — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 18:38:49 +0000

Of the economists whose forecasting abilities I truly admire, Marshall Vest, PhD and his colleagues at the University of Arizona, Eller College of Management, Economic & Business Research Center tops the list. As I posted earlier this year on my Arizona Business News weblog, Dr. Vest and his team were the first to correctly forecast the recession in Arizona, at a time when the economy was still climbing in full force. According to today's front page article in the Arizona Republic, Dr.Vest is quoted as saying about this recession:

"My guess is we are going to break that record," Vest said. "Probably somewhere between 18 and 21 months is what I am thinking and what I see other forecasters calling for."

If Dr. Vest is correct in his forecast, we should be seeing an end around the second or third quarter of 2009.

By: Mike

Mike — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 05:49:11 +0000

It’s already past 10 months Justin. 10 months is the “average” length of all of the recessions since the Great Depression, combined as a whole.

Individually, the recessions have ranged from a period of approximately six months lasting up to around sixteen months.

Here’s the NBER list of recessions.

The current recession has already lasted past the “average” length. Based upon this previous limited recession history, we should be nearing an end soon.

But, just like you read in all of the mutual fund prospectuses, “past performance is not an indication of future performance”. I happen to have an optimistic outlook, but only time will tell if I’m correct or not.

By: Justin @ FixThePig

Justin @ FixThePig — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 04:42:15 +0000

Great post…thanks for the insight on believing in yourself and following your own beliefs.
Only time will tell how deep and how long this recession will last, I’m still not convinced that this will only last 10 months.