Comments on: Junk Bonds as Market Indicator http://guzzothecontrarian.com/2008/08/07/junk-bonds-as-market-indicator/ One Man's Quest to Conquer the Markets Fri, 21 Nov 2008 22:55:09 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Mike http://guzzothecontrarian.com/2008/08/07/junk-bonds-as-market-indicator/#comment-75 Mike Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:12:35 +0000 http://guzzothecontrarian.com/?p=695#comment-75 Everything you just said sounds like great advice MJ. But, I'm a walking contradiction, an atypical investor, a <em>contrarian</em>. ;-) All my instincts and logic was telling me that the economy was headed for a fall. But on the other hand, I index because I believe very few people can consistently time the markets. Although I've never tried it before with my retirement portfolio, I just decided that it had to be done. So far I haven't yet reached my goal, so who's to say that my market timing adventure was right or not? My fingers are still crossed. Everything you just said sounds like great advice MJ. But, I’m a walking contradiction, an atypical investor, a contrarian. ;-)
All my instincts and logic was telling me that the economy was headed for a fall. But on the other hand, I index because I believe very few people can consistently time the markets.

Although I’ve never tried it before with my retirement portfolio, I just decided that it had to be done. So far I haven’t yet reached my goal, so who’s to say that my market timing adventure was right or not?

My fingers are still crossed.

]]> By: MJ http://guzzothecontrarian.com/2008/08/07/junk-bonds-as-market-indicator/#comment-76 MJ Thu, 14 Aug 2008 07:56:13 +0000 http://guzzothecontrarian.com/?p=695#comment-76 Target Funds are good. I like being in cash, although I am not too much, but I really think that this is a good time to start buying up some of these other total market funds. I need to review my ideas more, I like your basis for pulling out with the yeild curve. However, I like the indexing though because well I suck at dropping out on stocks, and these you typically hold and hold and hold. Target Funds are good. I like being in cash, although I am not too much, but I really think that this is a good time to start buying up some of these other total market funds. I need to review my ideas more, I like your basis for pulling out with the yeild curve. However, I like the indexing though because well I suck at dropping out on stocks, and these you typically hold and hold and hold.

]]> By: Mike http://guzzothecontrarian.com/2008/08/07/junk-bonds-as-market-indicator/#comment-72 Mike Wed, 13 Aug 2008 04:40:34 +0000 http://guzzothecontrarian.com/?p=695#comment-72 Thanks Harleydog.. your grandfather's a smart man. Hi MJ.. glad to see you back from vacation. Hope you didn't pick up any wacky diseases over there. ;-) I can't believe it's been this long, but I've been 100% cash for two years now. Your right, if I'm a boglehead, what the hell am I doing trying to time the market? Well, I probably shouldn't have, but I just believed that we were due for a correction, and when the yield curve inverted, I was convinced. Of course, in hindsight, I got out a little too early. I'm still holding out because I believe the markets have further to fall. But, there's a lot of fight left in them bulls and they're not going down easy. I've continued to DCA all this time, but it's all been into my money market funds (<a href="https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0030&FundIntExt=INT" rel="nofollow">VMMXX</a>). Before moving to cash, I had 100% of my retirement savings in <a href="https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0304&FundIntExt=INT" rel="nofollow">VTTVX</a>, Vanguard's Target Retirement 2025 Fund. This fund gives me the exact diversity that I'm looking for and does all the re-balancing for me. Of course, there's always those who believe I could tweak it better, but I don't see the need to be so precise. VTTVX, is all index, low-cost, and works just fine for me. When (not if) the price drops below $12.00 per share, I'm going to move back into it 100% again. After that, I don't plan on speculating with my retirement portfolio again. So far, it's working out for me, but I really don't like taking the additional risk. Thanks Harleydog.. your grandfather’s a smart man.

Hi MJ.. glad to see you back from vacation. Hope you didn’t pick up any wacky diseases over there. ;-)
I can’t believe it’s been this long, but I’ve been 100% cash for two years now.

Your right, if I’m a boglehead, what the hell am I doing trying to time the market?

Well, I probably shouldn’t have, but I just believed that we were due for a correction, and when the yield curve inverted, I was convinced. Of course, in hindsight, I got out a little too early.

I’m still holding out because I believe the markets have further to fall. But, there’s a lot of fight left in them bulls and they’re not going down easy. I’ve continued to DCA all this time, but it’s all been into my money market funds (VMMXX).

Before moving to cash, I had 100% of my retirement savings in VTTVX, Vanguard’s Target Retirement 2025 Fund. This fund gives me the exact diversity that I’m looking for and does all the re-balancing for me. Of course, there’s always those who believe I could tweak it better, but I don’t see the need to be so precise. VTTVX, is all index, low-cost, and works just fine for me.

When (not if) the price drops below $12.00 per share, I’m going to move back into it 100% again. After that, I don’t plan on speculating with my retirement portfolio again. So far, it’s working out for me, but I really don’t like taking the additional risk.

]]> By: MJ http://guzzothecontrarian.com/2008/08/07/junk-bonds-as-market-indicator/#comment-73 MJ Wed, 13 Aug 2008 02:50:10 +0000 http://guzzothecontrarian.com/?p=695#comment-73 I know you are in all cash currently, but being the Bogle guy that you are, why aren't you buying up total market etf's and other low expense indexes. I know you are in all cash currently, but being the Bogle guy that you are, why aren’t you buying up total market etf’s and other low expense indexes.

]]> By: Harleydog http://guzzothecontrarian.com/2008/08/07/junk-bonds-as-market-indicator/#comment-74 Harleydog Wed, 13 Aug 2008 00:41:59 +0000 http://guzzothecontrarian.com/?p=695#comment-74 G the C, Absolutely nothin' wrong with cash. As my grandpa used to tell me, "no one likes 3% till they lose 30%". continued success to you. HD G the C,

Absolutely nothin’ wrong with cash. As my grandpa used to tell me, “no one likes 3% till they lose 30%”.

continued success to you.
HD

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