It’s been a while since I’ve written a weekly wrap or actually discussed what I’ve been doing with my portfolio, so I thought it was time to let anyone who cares know what I’ve been doing (or not been doing), and what’s been going through my mind lately.
As we all know, this week ends the fourth straight week with weekly stock market declines, capping off the year with approximately a 4-6% decline in the big-three stock indexes (DJIA: -4.0%, Nasdaq: -5.6%, S&P 500: -4.4%).
So what do I make of this recent market decline?
You’ll find all kinds of speculation as to specific causes, but I chalk it all up to investor uncertainty and performance anxiety.
No one wants to be stuck holding the bag when the market pulls back, and conversely, no one want to be left behind when it takes off. The volatility exhibited in the markets this past few weeks (especially on Friday), expresses just how anxious investors are about an economic recovery.
But that’s all it is.. fear and anxiety driving investors to “do” something.
Albeit a slow one, I really believe our economy is in a recovery phase. The market has been a tear for so long that it would be foolish and irrational to expect continued market gains without periodic pullbacks, and that’s what’s happening now, a temporary decline.
While unemployment has been the biggest cause of investor anxiety, I still believe it’s remnants of a lagging indicator and will turn around soon, but slowly. Mainstream media has a tendency to sensationalize the numbers, but rates have fallen since I first wrote about unemployment reaching a peak back in October of last year.
Other aspects of our economy showing signs of improvement. GDP has grown over the past two quarters, corporate profits have exceeded expectations, exports are rebounding, personal income is up, consumer spending has increased, consumer confidence is at a two-year high, and the ISM index has reached it’s best level since 2004. IMO, these indicators as a whole point to a recovery.
But don’t take my word for it, track the results yourself.
Concerns are sure to persist that the economy’s momentum could fade, but the way I see it, if you search the minutia hard enough to find a problem, eventually your going to find one. I’m still continuing to sit on my hands with my retirement portfolio, but I may buy some select stocks if investor anxiety continues to cause the markets to decline.
Related Links – The Vanguard Group: Economic Week in Review




Roth IRA Conversion
I’m a big fan of the Roth IRA. I think it’s one of the best retirement savings tools available to the individual investor, and I always try to take advantage of it when I can. But, there were times when I couldn’t contribute.
Back in May of 2006 there was a pretty significant change to the tax laws involving converting a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. One of those changes included the modified AGI and filing status requirements for converting a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA to be eliminated come 2010.
Essentially, this now means that almost anyone with a Traditional IRA, regardless of income level, can convert their Traditional IRA into a Roth IRA beginning this year (see IRS rules).
I mention this only because, although I try to contribute the maximum amount to a yearly Roth IRA, I’m one of those folks that (fortunately) borders on the cusp of earning too much to qualify for a contribution. There were a couple of years (2005-06) where I wasn’t able to contribute to a Roth IRA, and knowing that conversion income limits were going to be rescinded in 2010, I contributed to a non-deductible Traditional IRA instead.
Now is when that strategy pays off. Taking advantage of the recent stock market pullback, I converted my Traditional IRA into a Roth IRA today.
Nothing has changed about my investment except it’s characterization. I still have my savings invested in the same mutual fund (VTTVX) through Vanguard. But, because it was a non-deductible IRA, and because the price of that mutual fund has fallen in tandem with the markets, I shouldn’t owe any taxes (or minimal taxes) generated from this conversion.